Bethany, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

512
FXUS64 KOUN 250535
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

- Strong to severe thunderstorms (marginal risk) are possible this
afternoon through overnight with large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Daily chances for storms (some severe) and heavy rain continue
  through middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

By sunrise Friday morning, most models depict a cold front knocking
on the doorstep of northwest Oklahoma with CAMs suggesting ongoing
weak convection near and just south of this boundary. How much
coverage there is and how far south these showers and storms make it
is a bit uncertain--most CAMs suggest a semi-focused area of
scattered showers and storms traversing south to the Red River
through the morning hours. That said, ongoing convection may leave
us with an environment less conducive to additional showers and
storms this morning. Would expect the majority of convection to be
short-lived and light on rainfall amounts.

By afternoon, the front is expected to be near the I-40 corridor.
Additional thunderstorm development appears possible near and along
the front this afternoon and evening. Early chances will be highest
in the panhandles where deep layer shear is stronger, with only 20-
30% chance extending eastward into central Oklahoma (at least at
first). Overnight, a complex looks to develop and sweep eastward
through the southern half or two thirds of Oklahoma and north Texas,
fueled in part by the low level jet. A few strong to severe storms
will be possible during the afternoon / evening, with chances
decreasing (and transitioning to mainly a wind threat) as
instability wanes overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Convection will likely be ongoing from the previous night Saturday
morning. By this time, the front appears to be rather diffuse,
though combined with abundant moisture return will likely help
support additional showers and storms (mainly scattered) through the
afternoon.

After this, rain chances begin to go down. The NBM and global
ensembles seem to hold on to moderately high PoPs, but the overall
pattern does not seem to support this, especially with the front
largely dissipating. Still, with southwest flow, will maintain at
least low chances for showers and storms through this period,
including a chance for severe storms Sunday afternoon through
overnight. As the previous discussion mentions, we could see storms
form off the dryline Sunday afternoon, then make their way eastward
into our area Sunday evening / overnight supported by a strong low
level jet.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Monday looks to be another potential dryline convection today, with
the dryline stretching SSW to NNE across western Oklahoma. Chances
of getting storm initiation appear low at this point (due to capping
potential, though the environment would support severe threats if we
do get storms.

The next significant upper level system approaches Monday night,
bringing a cold front into the area. Rain chances and severe
potential will increase again with the approach of this front.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

All terminals should remain under VFR conditions for a couple of
hours but expecting ceilings to reduce to MVFR conditions between
07-12Z from a storm system complex coming down off the Central
Plains. Expecting TSRA from the storm complex to either be in the
vicinity or across all of our terminals ending by 18Z, although
may persist a couple of hours longer at terminal KDUA in southeast
Oklahoma. Visibilities may lower and ceilings further reduce
resulting in brief periods of IFR conditions with storm activity
near to over the terminals. A cold front coming down from Kansas
is expected to push into northern Oklahoma by 18Z shifting the
surface winds out of the northeast across our terminals eventually
reaching the I-44 terminals toward the end of this forecast time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  61  70  62 /  50  70  90  40
Hobart OK         78  60  72  60 /  60  70  90  40
Wichita Falls TX  81  63  77  63 /  40  70  80  30
Gage OK           70  53  69  57 /  50  80  90  40
Ponca City OK     75  57  67  60 /  50  40  80  50
Durant OK         81  65  80  64 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68